ABED wrote:He was surprised but not shocked by Vegeta's strength, and he knows he's still stronger.
You're saying that Goku should have known how strong Gotenks was by estimating Goten and Trunks' battle powers for whatever the fusion formula is, but he was surprised at Vegeta doubling his, when Goku knows from experience what SSJ2 does?
Goku was right about Vegeta, he just didn't know how right he was that he was outclassed.
He thought that the Genki Dama beat Vegeta. He was wrong.
Cell - he was a tad surprised but I never got the impression he thought Gohan was gonna lose. Even when Gohan's arm was shattered he told his son that he was absolutely positive he would win.
A tad? He's shocked and stuttering.
Chapter: 409 (DBZ 215), P8.2-4
Context: after Cell powers up
Goku: “S-so we finally get to see Cell fight at full power”
Kuririn: “This ki is so astounding, it’s like the entire Earth is shaking.”
Gohan: “What’s the big deal?”
Gohan was still in very little danger of losing. The fight hadn't progressed to that point, and Gohan was holding his own.
Look at Goku's face in the manga when Cell powers up.
What about fighting Piccolo
What about him? He never makes an estimate here.
, or the renewed Piccolo Daimao
Goku couldn't sense ki then.
, Nappa, Ginyu (he didn't know he could switch bodies, so it wasn't a matter of strength),
Like I said earlier, he was perfectly fine at measuring powers when they were way weaker than he was.
Cell? Yes I do think he sized up Cell properly. He may not have known how big the gap was, but he did know there was a sizable gap between his and Gohan's powers, and if he wasn't so damn sure, he wouldn't have trained the way he did or rested as much.
Chapter: 391 (DBZ 197), P11.1-7
Goku: “But how am I compared to Cell?!”
Karin: “Hmm… You always ask the most difficult questions… As I said, this is only speculation…but honestly…I’m afraid Cell is still a bit stronger.”
Yajirobe: “This Cell guy must be a terrible bastard!...”
Goku: “I thought so. I guessed right! Thanks, Master Karin!”
Korin said he was "a bit stronger than Goku," and Goku agreed with him. We know from the events that took place that Cell was much stronger than Goku.
Showing momentary surprise doesn't mean he was wrong or completely off base.
Sure it does. His impressions were wrong.
ABED wrote:Regardless of how spot on his predictions are, Goku always finds a way, even if it is luck, but as Muten Roshi said, luck is part of being a good fighter, or something to that effect. If Goku thinks the little guys can be counted on, then I would put my trust in the guy who was responsible for saving the world many times over. Clearly he knows what he's doing if he keeps coming up against impossible odds and overcoming them.
If his predictions are often wrong, then why should we accept that he's absolutely right about Goten and Trunks' fusion being enough to stop Buu?